Kenya's crisis spreads gloom over Africa

Thu 3 Jan 2008, 12:31 GMT

By Barry Moody

NAIROBI (Reuters) - Kenya's sudden spiral into chaos after years as a regional anchor has badly set back Africa's democratic progress and will strike a heavy blow against the economies of a wide swathe of neighbouring nations.

In a few turbulent days since a tarnished election on Dec. 27, Kenya has gone from democratic hope to disaster, from a country seen as an island of stability in a dangerous region to a new trouble spot torn by ethnic bloodletting.

The election, which Kenya's opposition says was rigged to re-elect President Mwai Kibaki, ended a year in which democratic hopes in Africa had already been dented by a totally discredited poll in Nigeria and turmoil in the politics of South Africa, the continent's economic locomotive.

"This is the greatest setback to Africa's reputation since the 60s. Kenya has an iconic status, seen as synonymous with Africa," said Kenya expert Michael Holman.

But analysts do not believe Kenya's crisis will contaminate other nations politically.

"The politics of every country in Africa are very, very separate. African politics are all local and all personal ... I don't think it has any wider implications at all," said Richard Dowden, director of the Royal African Society.

Control Risks senior Africa analyst Chris Melville agreed: "While Kenya is at the heart of an unstable region, we do not consider that the current situation will significantly contribute to regional instability in the short-term."